In 1986, a panel of 150 scientists from
eleven countries issued a report warning that human activities such as
automobile use, the production of energy from burning fossil fuels, and
deforestation could cause global temperature to rise by increasing the
earth's greenhouse effect. The rising of Greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide became general concern for these scientists.
The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict some
aspects of human-induced climate change: exactly how fast it will occur,
how much will change, and where those changes will take place. Climate
change theory suggests that warming of the overall environment could lead
to a variety of changes in the patterns of the Earth's climate as the
natural of air currents, ocean currents, evaporation, plant growth, and
so on, change in response to the increased energy levels in the total
system.
As a well established theory, the greenhouse
effect is in the heart of the theory of climate change (both human origin
and non-human). The greenhouse effect is really simple. When the energy
from the sun reaches the surface of the Earth, some of its energy is absorbed
by the surface (oceans and land masses), some is reflected back toward
space unchanged, and some is first absorbed and subsequently re-emitted
in the form of heat. Over a small part of ground that wouldn't change
the temperature but if there is a greenhouse located over this small part
of the ground the dynamic changes. Small concentration of water vapor
and greenhouse gasses convert some of the energy to heat and this"
trapped" energy creates a blanket of warm air around the earth that
moderates global temperatures and climate patterns. Certain gases as carbon
dioxide, methane, ozone, and nitrous oxide, trap the solar energy and
keep the temperature of the earth warmer than it would be without such
gases.
There is no doubt that the Earth's climate
has changed during the last 100 years. The global mean air-surface temperature
over the land and ocean has warmed between 0.6 and 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit
and sea levels has risen 10 to 25 centimeters. Since the late 1970's there
has been decrease in Arctic Ocean ice and unusual persistence of the El
Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean that affect severe weather patterns
globally.
In 1995 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), a United Nation subcommittee including more than two thousand
scientists, declare that human activities were partly responsible for
rising global temperatures. In a report, IPCC also predicted that carbon
dioxide levels could double by the year 2100 causing temperatures to increase
from 2 to 10.4 degrees F. Such a temperature change would likely bring
a greater occurrence of floods, droughts, heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes,
and other forms of extreme weather. That will cause storm-related deaths,
infectious diseases, and economic crises. It has been proven that the
1990s decade was the hottest on record. An environmental journalist Ross
Gelbspan points out that the year 1998 "began with a January ice
storm that left four million people without power in Quebec and northern
New England. For the first time, rainforests in Brazil and Mexico actually
caught fire. The summer brought killer heat waves in the Middle East,
India and Texas, were residents suffered through a record 29 consecutive
triple-digit days." The fallowing year was even worse, contends Gelbspan:
"1999 saw record-setting droughts in the Mid-Atlantic States…A heat
wave in the Midwest and northeastern U.S. claimed 271 lives. Hurricane
Floyd caused more than $1 billion in damages on North Carolina. A super-cyclone
in eastern India killed 10,000 people. That winter mudslides and rains
in Venezuela claimed 15,000 lives. Unprecedented December windstorms swept
northern Europe, causing more than $4 billion in damages." Adding
to all these abnormalities, everyone remembers the tsunami in 2004 taking
the life of 230,000 people in Indonesia and the resent calamity that United
States experienced in New Orleans with hurricane Katrina rated as the
costliest and deadliest in the country history causing the death of at
least 1836 people.
Answer on "How to respond to the potential
risks posed by global warming" was seeking United Nations conference
that met in Kyoto, Japan. In December 1997, UN negotiators approved and
agreement requiring thirty-eight industrialized nations to reduce their
greenhouse emissions by 6 to 8 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2012.
Exclusions only apply to developing countries, which are poorer and less
able to reduce greenhouse gases without straining their economies. Emissaries
signing Kyoto Protocol must obtain an approval from their own governments.
A Clinton administration official signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998, but
the U.S. Senate voted in 1999 to reject any climate change treaty that
does not require poor nations to reduce their own greenhouse gases.
Critics of the Kyoto Protocol argue that
the treaty would hurt the economy and lower U.S. living standards. Cutting
down greenhouse gas emission would require adoption of expensive pollution-reducing
technology which will slow down the production and that would lead into
higher gas prices, food, and housing costs. Based on these warnings President
George Bush officially withdrew U.S. support for the treaty in 2001.
What can we do as regular people to help
to reduce greenhouse gasses? One simple step we can take is to make our
cars go further on a gallon of gas. Cars, trucks, lawnmowers and power
plants could be made more efficient by simply using better technology
that already exists. Instead of yielding to the power of advertising,
"people should buy a vehicle appropriate to their needs," says
Dan Becker, director of the Sierra Club's global warming program. "They
shouldn't buy one that climbs mountains and pulls yachts (and gets only
24 miles per gallon or less) if they are just going to use it to drive
to work and pick up the kids from school."
Development of solar, wind and other clean
energy is neglected. We have the potential to produce our electricity
from clean energy sources like the sun and the wind.
The global climate is changing and human
activities are contributing to that change. Scientific research is required
to improve the ability to predict climate change and its impact on countries
and regions around the globe.
By Dessi Tchalakova
